Cuba · Monthly

September 2026

Preliminary Issued 2026-10-11 · version 1 · Baseline 1991-2020 · next update 2026-10-25

1 Key messages and climate synopsis

  • National mean temperature of 28.1 °C (+0.6 °C relative to 1991–2020): the 4th warmest September in the 1979–2026 series.
  • National precipitation of 67.1 mm, 73% of normal: the 10th driest September in the 1979–2026 series.
  • Maximum temperature exceeded its 90th percentile on 32% of days (national mean; 10% expected).
  • Heat waves of national extent: 1; cold waves: 0.
  • El Niño conditions of very strong intensity in the equatorial Pacific (ONI JAS 2026: +2.2 °C).
  • Preliminary figures: precipitation comes from CPC and will be updated with the final product.

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature
28.1°C
+0.6 °C vs. normal (normal 27.5)
Slightly above normal
4th warmest of 48 (1979–2026)
Maximum temperature
32.0°C
+0.5 °C vs. normal (normal 31.5)
Normal
13th warmest of 48 (1979–2026) (tied with 2014, 2022)
Minimum temperature
24.3°C
+0.8 °C vs. normal (normal 23.5)
Slightly above normal
4th warmest of 48 (1979–2026) (tied with 1999)
Precipitation
67.1mm
72% of normal (normal 92.6)
Below normal
10th driest of 48 (1979–2026)
Station records
0

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

2 Global and regional climate drivers

Sea-surface temperature anomaly, September 2026 (°C, 1991–2020)

Sea-surface temperature anomaly, September 2026 (°C, 1991–2020)

Source: NOAA NCEI / PSL

Sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño regions (°C)

RegionAnomaly (°C)Change from preceding period (°C)
Niño 1+24.70.6
Niño 33.60.5
Niño 3.42.80.3
Niño 40.90.0

Mean of the months in the period (OISST v2.1)

Source: NOAA CPC

El Niño conditions of very strong intensity: the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for JAS 2026 was +2.2 °C.

Source: NOAA CPC

Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly, last 24 months (°C)

Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly, last 24 months (°C)

Source: NOAA CPC

MJO phase diagram (real-time OMI)

MJO phase diagram (real-time OMI)

Source: NOAA PSL

Teleconnection indices

IndexValuePhase
NAO0.5Positive

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Source: NOAA CPC

The Niño 3.4 anomaly was +2.84 °C (+0.32 °C relative to the preceding period).

The MJO was active on 3 of 30 days, most often in phase 2 (Indian Ocean); mean amplitude 0.7.

Other indices: NAO +0.53 (positive phase).

3 Precipitation

National precipitation
67.1mm
72% of normal (normal 92.6)
Below normal
10th driest of 48 (1979–2026)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Accumulated precipitation

Accumulated precipitation

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Percent of normal precipitation (1991–2020)

Percent of normal precipitation (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Percent of normal by state

Percent of normal by state

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Precipitation by region

RegionTotal (mm)Normal (mm)Difference (%)Category
Western Cuba48.3103.9−53.5Below normal
Central Cuba43.4109.9−60.5Much below normal
Eastern Cuba110.762.976.1Much above normal

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Largest 24-hour rainfall at stations

StationStateMax 24 h rainfall (mm)Date
Guantanamo Bay NasGuantánamo21.62026-09-09

Source: NOAA NCEI

Daily national mean precipitation

Daily national mean precipitation

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Daily national mean and grid-cell maximum

DayNational mean (mm)Grid maximum (mm)State
2026-09-014.920.0Guantánamo
2026-09-024.423.6Granma
2026-09-030.01.4—
2026-09-042.811.7Villa Clara
2026-09-050.00.7Matanzas
2026-09-060.00.1—
2026-09-070.31.0Camagüey
2026-09-080.00.0—
2026-09-091.03.0Guantánamo
2026-09-100.52.2Matanzas
2026-09-117.427.5Cienfuegos
2026-09-120.52.0Matanzas
2026-09-130.23.2Camagüey
2026-09-140.00.0—
2026-09-157.029.9Santiago de Cuba
2026-09-163.915.6Villa Clara
2026-09-170.21.8Matanzas
2026-09-180.12.9Guantánamo
2026-09-191.856.4Granma
2026-09-200.321.7Granma
2026-09-213.413.8Villa Clara
2026-09-220.14.5Granma
2026-09-234.620.3Villa Clara
2026-09-241.912.0Matanzas
2026-09-2517.272.8Guantánamo
2026-09-260.20.8Guantánamo
2026-09-270.15.1Granma
2026-09-284.017.6Villa Clara
2026-09-290.237.8Pinar del Río
2026-09-300.23.5Granma

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

National precipitation in September of each year

National precipitation in September of each year

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

National accumulated precipitation was 67.1 mm, 73% of the 1991–2020 average (92.6 mm), category “Below normal”. It was the 10th driest September in the 1979–2026 series.

The region with the highest percentage of normal was Eastern Cuba (176%) and the lowest was Central Cuba (40%).

The largest daily grid-cell total was estimated on 25 September in Guantánamo (72.8 mm).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

4 Temperature

Mean temperature
28.1°C
+0.6 °C vs. normal (normal 27.5)
Slightly above normal
4th warmest of 48 (1979–2026)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature

Mean temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Mean temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature anomaly by state

Mean temperature anomaly by state

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Stations with the largest positive anomaly

RegionStateStationAltitude (m)Anomaly (°C)
Eastern CubaGuantánamoGuantanamo Bay Nas16.00.3

Source: NOAA NCEI

National mean temperature anomaly in September of each year

National mean temperature anomaly in September of each year

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national mean temperature was 28.1 °C, 0.6 °C above the 1991–2020 average (27.5 °C), category “Slightly above normal”. It was the 4th warmest September in the 1979–2026 series.

By region, the largest anomaly was in Eastern Cuba (+1.1 °C) and the smallest in Western Cuba (+0.2 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Maximum temperature
32.0°C
+0.5 °C vs. normal (normal 31.5)
Normal
13th warmest of 48 (1979–2026) (tied with 2014, 2022)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Maximum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Maximum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Daily national maximum temperature

Daily national maximum temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national maximum temperature was 32.0 °C, 0.5 °C above the 1991–2020 average (31.5 °C), category “Normal”. It was the 13th warmest September in the 1979–2026 series (tied with 2014, 2022).

By region, the largest anomaly was in Western Cuba (+0.8 °C) and the smallest in Central Cuba (+0.3 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Minimum temperature
24.3°C
+0.8 °C vs. normal (normal 23.5)
Slightly above normal
4th warmest of 48 (1979–2026) (tied with 1999)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Minimum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Minimum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Daily national minimum temperature

Daily national minimum temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national minimum temperature was 24.3 °C, 0.8 °C above the 1991–2020 average (23.5 °C), category “Slightly above normal”. It was the 4th warmest September in the 1979–2026 series (tied with 1999).

By region, the largest anomaly was in Eastern Cuba (+1.7 °C) and the smallest in Western Cuba (−0.3 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

5 Climate extremes and records

Highest maximum temperature
33.9°C
Guantanamo Bay Nas, GTM · 2026-09-13
Lowest minimum temperature
23.9°C
Guantanamo Bay Nas, GTM · 2026-09-02
Highest 24 h rainfall
21.6mm
Guantanamo Bay Nas, GTM · 2026-09-09

Source: NOAA NCEI

Highest maximum temperature by state

StateStationTemperature (°C)Date
GuantánamoGuantanamo Bay Nas33.92026-09-13

Source: NOAA NCEI

Lowest minimum temperature by state

StateStationTemperature (°C)Date
GuantánamoGuantanamo Bay Nas23.92026-09-02

Source: NOAA NCEI

Climate-extremes indices (national mean)

IndexDescriptionValueNormalDifferenceUnit
TX90pWarm days (Tmax > 90th percentile)31.510.021.5%
TN90pWarm nights (Tmin > 90th percentile)33.510.023.5%
TX10pCool days (Tmax < 10th percentile)12.010.02.0%
TN10pCold nights (Tmin < 10th percentile)3.610.0−6.4%
FDFrost days (Tmin < 0 °C)0.00.00.0d
SUSummer days (Tmax > 25 °C)30.029.90.1d
TRTropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C)30.029.90.1d
WSDIWarm spell days (≥ 6 days)3.6——d
CSDICold spell days (≥ 6 days)0.0——d
Rx1dayMaximum 1-day precipitation24.227.5−3.3mm
Rx5dayMaximum 5-day precipitation28.446.2−17.8mm
CDDConsecutive dry days (< 1 mm)10.210.7−0.4d
CWDConsecutive wet days (≥ 1 mm)1.93.3−1.4d

Percentile indices relative to calendar-day percentiles of 1991–2020 (5-day window); counts and maxima averaged over the country's grid cells.

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Heat and cold waves

DatesTypeDetails
2026-09-07 – 2026-09-11Heat waveUp to 98% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Western Cuba, Central Cuba and Eastern Cuba.

Wave: at least 3 consecutive days with at least half of the country above the 90th percentile of maximum temperature (heat) or below the 10th percentile of minimum temperature (cold). At most the 10 most intense are listed.

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

6 Drought

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ending September 2026

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ending September 2026
SPI computed from CPC_PRECIP; gamma distribution fitted to 1991–2020 accumulations.

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Share of the country by SPI category

Share of the country by SPI category

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

States with the lowest SPI-3

StateSPI-1SPI-3SPI-6SPI-12Category
Pinar del Río−2.1−1.5−1.9−2.0Moderate drought
La Habana−1.2−1.0−1.0−1.1Moderate drought
Artemisa−1.5−0.9−1.2−1.4Mild drought
Isla de la Juventud−0.9−0.6−0.8−1.0Mild drought

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

SPI-3 (Jul–Sep 2026): national mean +0.07; 7% of the country in drought (SPI ≤ −1.0) and 3% in severe or extreme drought.

Most affected states: Pinar del Río (−1.46) and La Habana (−1.00).

SPI-1 (September 2026): 30% of the country in drought.

SPI-6 (Apr–Sep 2026): 11% of the country in drought.

SPI-12 (Oct 2025–Sep 2026): 13% of the country in drought.

7 Severe weather and notable events

Notable events

DatesTypeDetails
2026-04-21 – 2026-10-09DroughtGDACS Orange alert: Drought in The Bahamas, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador.

GDACS alerts and station rainfall of 150 mm or more in 24 hours (after quality control).

Source: GDACS

No tropical cyclone came within 300 km of the country.

9 Outlook

Outlook for October 2026: most likely tercile

Outlook for October 2026: most likely tercile

Source: NOAA CPC

Outlook for Oct–Dec 2026: most likely tercile

Outlook for Oct–Dec 2026: most likely tercile

Source: NOAA CPC

Probability of each tercile by region, Oct–Dec 2026 (%)

RegionPrecipitation: belowPrecipitation: normalPrecipitation: aboveTemp.: belowTemp.: normalTemp.: above
Western Cuba23.031.046.06.020.074.0
Central Cuba26.032.042.08.020.072.0
Eastern Cuba30.035.035.015.014.071.0

Source: NOAA CPC

ENSO outlook: probability of each phase (%)

ENSO outlook: probability of each phase (%)

Source: NOAA CPC

Probabilistic outlook from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), initialised in October 2026, relative to 1991–2020 terciles. It is not an official forecast: consult the national meteorological service.

Precipitation, October 2026: above normal is favoured over 35% of the country and below normal over 19%.

Mean temperature, October 2026: above normal is favoured over 100% of the country and below normal over 0%.

Precipitation, Oct–Dec 2026: above normal is favoured over 47% of the country and below normal over 0%.

Mean temperature, Oct–Dec 2026: above normal is favoured over 100% of the country and below normal over 0%.

Probability of El Niño in the official ENSO outlook: SON 100%, OND 100%, NDJ 100% and DJF 100%.

10 Annexes

Report climate regions

Report climate regions

Monthly precipitation by state (mm)

StateJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep
Pinar del Río3.71.03.61.76.94.715.945.97.8
Artemisa4.01.47.21.611.39.817.656.38.7
La Habana11.64.415.65.042.935.123.157.024.9
Mayabeque23.29.531.810.573.469.829.062.344.5
Matanzas52.221.471.923.9162.9158.746.973.999.7
Isla de la Juventud6.32.68.22.917.516.817.751.712.1
Cienfuegos57.426.883.128.9191.3189.053.576.4116.9
Villa Clara55.939.792.039.4210.9192.457.474.9106.5
Sancti Spíritus43.394.2115.082.2273.6179.563.470.937.3
Ciego de Ávila37.6140.1142.7114.4326.9173.768.667.66.2
Camagüey37.5147.0147.1118.3332.7171.969.866.28.0
Las Tunas37.3118.4118.992.7252.9142.759.653.045.5
Holguín36.366.065.842.995.482.840.325.9121.8
Granma50.081.790.061.8146.0103.943.634.6103.2
Santiago de Cuba37.855.855.831.358.368.536.319.4144.6
Guantánamo38.650.950.629.350.965.633.618.2142.7

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Monthly maximum temperature by state (°C)

StateJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep
Pinar del Río25.926.029.130.132.031.932.733.431.6
Artemisa25.525.628.729.731.931.932.733.431.6
La Habana—————————
Mayabeque26.026.229.230.232.632.533.433.832.2
Matanzas26.626.929.630.532.932.833.934.032.7
Isla de la Juventud25.926.029.029.832.132.032.933.231.6
Cienfuegos26.826.929.530.432.933.034.234.132.8
Villa Clara26.326.128.829.732.532.934.034.032.3
Sancti Spíritus27.126.328.829.932.833.034.634.231.5
Ciego de Ávila27.426.528.930.333.233.535.435.031.6
Camagüey28.126.829.430.533.333.635.535.131.7
Las Tunas28.727.429.830.733.433.935.635.232.2
Holguín28.227.029.029.832.433.234.634.432.0
Granma28.827.829.830.432.833.335.034.632.1
Santiago de Cuba28.427.329.229.932.032.734.234.032.0
Guantánamo27.826.528.228.930.831.532.832.831.5

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Monthly mean temperature by state (°C)

StateJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep
Pinar del Río21.720.724.525.727.928.128.428.727.6
Artemisa21.020.023.824.927.627.928.328.627.4
La Habana—————————
Mayabeque21.120.123.924.927.727.928.428.527.5
Matanzas21.720.724.325.227.828.028.628.527.7
Isla de la Juventud22.521.325.226.128.628.729.129.228.1
Cienfuegos22.221.024.425.527.928.028.828.727.8
Villa Clara22.220.824.325.327.828.128.828.827.8
Sancti Spíritus22.920.924.425.127.928.429.229.127.8
Ciego de Ávila23.121.024.325.128.128.929.829.728.1
Camagüey23.921.625.025.728.429.130.030.028.4
Las Tunas24.522.225.526.028.729.430.230.228.7
Holguín24.522.525.325.828.329.129.930.028.8
Granma24.222.525.325.828.228.929.629.628.5
Santiago de Cuba24.322.625.025.627.828.529.429.428.5
Guantánamo24.222.524.625.227.328.129.029.028.4

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Monthly minimum temperature by state (°C)

StateJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep
Pinar del Río17.615.320.021.323.824.224.224.023.6
Artemisa16.514.419.020.223.424.023.923.823.3
La Habana—————————
Mayabeque16.114.018.619.722.923.323.323.222.7
Matanzas16.714.519.019.922.723.123.323.122.8
Isla de la Juventud19.116.721.422.325.025.325.425.124.7
Cienfuegos17.615.119.420.522.923.123.423.322.9
Villa Clara18.115.519.820.823.023.323.623.623.3
Sancti Spíritus18.615.519.920.423.123.823.724.024.0
Ciego de Ávila18.715.519.619.822.924.424.124.524.6
Camagüey19.816.420.520.823.524.724.424.925.1
Las Tunas20.317.021.121.324.025.024.825.225.2
Holguín20.918.121.621.924.325.125.325.525.5
Granma19.717.220.721.223.624.524.224.624.8
Santiago de Cuba20.217.920.921.323.724.424.524.825.0
Guantánamo20.518.620.921.623.824.625.225.225.3

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Stations used

IdNameStateLatitudeLongitudeAltitude (m)Days with data (Tmax) (%)
CUW00011706Guantanamo Bay NasGuantánamo19.9−75.216.2100.0

CSV

Source: NOAA NCEI

11 Glossary, methodology and sources

Anomaly: difference between the observed value and its 1991–2020 normal. Percent of normal: observed total divided by the normal, times 100. Station record: most extreme daily value for the same month in all earlier years of record (at least 20 years).

Temperature: CPC_TEMP (0.5° daily grid); mean temperature is (Tmax + Tmin)/2. Precipitation: CPC. National, regional and state averages are weighted by the area of each grid cell inside each polygon. Normals refer to 1991-2020; ranks compare values rounded to one decimal. Stations: GHCN-Daily (NOAA NCEI); values flagged by its quality control are discarded, as are daily values more than 5 robust standard deviations from the station median and variables whose monthly anomaly differs by more than 3 °C from the gridded analysis. Period means require at least 80% of days with data and station normals at least 20 complete years. This report is generated automatically and does not replace official information from the national meteorological service.

SourceProductLicenseCitation
NOAA CPCOfficial ENSO probabilitiesPublic domain (NOAA)—
NOAA CPCONI, Niño-region SST indices (OISST v2.1), NAO and AOPublic domain (NOAA)NOAA Climate Prediction Center climate indices.
NOAA CPC / PSLCPC Global Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation, 0.5°Public domain (NOAA)CPC Global Unified Precipitation data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA.
NOAA CPC / PSLCPC Global Unified Temperature, daily 0.5°Public domain (NOAA)CPC Global Unified Temperature data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA.
NOAA NCEI / PSLExtended Reconstructed SST v5 (ERSST v5), 2°Public domain (NOAA)Huang et al. (2017), J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1
GDACSGlobal Disaster Alert and Coordination System event listSee provider terms—
NOAA NCEIGHCN-DailyPublic domain (NOAA)Menne et al. (2012), J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00103.1
NOAA NCEIIBTrACS v04r01 tropical-cyclone best tracksPublic domain (NOAA)Knapp et al. (2010), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1
NOAA CPCNorth American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) tercile probabilities, 1°Public domain (NOAA)Kirtman et al. (2014), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1
NOAA PSLReal-time OLR MJO Index (ROMI)Public domain (NOAA)Kiladis et al. (2014), Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00301.1
geoBoundariesgeoBoundaries gbOpen (OpenStreetMap, Wambacher)Open Data Commons Open Database License 1.0—

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