Cuba · Weekly
Week 40, 2026 (28 September – 4 October)
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1 Key messages and climate synopsis
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
2 Global and regional climate drivers
Sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño regions (°C)
| Region | Anomaly (°C) | Change from preceding period (°C) |
|---|---|---|
| Niño 1+2 | 5.3 | 0.6 |
| Niño 3 | 4.0 | 0.1 |
| Niño 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.1 |
| Niño 4 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
Weekly mean (OISST v2.1)
Source: NOAA CPC
El Niño conditions of very strong intensity: the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for JAS 2026 was +2.2 °C.
Source: NOAA CPC
Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly, last 24 months (°C)
Source: NOAA CPC
MJO phase diagram (real-time OMI)
Source: NOAA PSL
The Niño 3.4 anomaly was +3.20 °C (+0.10 °C relative to the preceding period).
The MJO was active on 7 of 7 days, most often in phase 2 (Indian Ocean); mean amplitude 1.2.
3 Precipitation
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Accumulated precipitation
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Percent of normal precipitation (1991–2020)
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Precipitation by region
| Region | Total (mm) | Normal (mm) | Difference (%) | Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Cuba | 17.6 | 21.3 | −17.4 | Near normal |
| Central Cuba | 12.3 | 27.9 | −55.9 | Below normal |
| Eastern Cuba | 3.5 | 23.6 | −85.1 | Much below normal |
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Largest 24-hour rainfall at stations
| Station | State | Max 24 h rainfall (mm) | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guantanamo Bay Nas | Guantánamo | 3.6 | 2026-09-30 |
Source: NOAA NCEI
Daily national mean precipitation
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
National accumulated precipitation was 10.9 mm, 44% of the 1991–2020 average (24.6 mm), category “Below normal”. It was the 10th driest week 40 in the 1979–2026 series.
The region with the highest percentage of normal was Western Cuba (83%) and the lowest was Eastern Cuba (15%).
The largest daily grid-cell total was estimated on 3 October in Pinar del Río (45.8 mm).
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
4 Temperature
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Mean temperature
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Mean temperature anomaly (1991–2020)
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Stations with the largest positive anomaly
| Region | State | Station | Altitude (m) | Anomaly (°C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Cuba | Guantánamo | Guantanamo Bay Nas | 16.0 | 0.7 |
Source: NOAA NCEI
The national mean temperature was 27.9 °C, 0.9 °C above the 1991–2020 average (27.0 °C), category “Slightly above normal”. It was the 3rd warmest week 40 in the 1979–2026 series.
By region, the largest anomaly was in Eastern Cuba (+1.4 °C) and the smallest in Western Cuba (+0.3 °C).
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Maximum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Daily national maximum temperature
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
The national maximum temperature was 31.3 °C, 0.5 °C above the 1991–2020 average (30.8 °C), category “Slightly above normal”. It was the 18th warmest week 40 in the 1979–2026 series (tied with 2004, 2015).
By region, the largest anomaly was in Eastern Cuba (+0.9 °C) and the smallest in Western Cuba (+0.3 °C).
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Minimum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Daily national minimum temperature
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
The national minimum temperature was 24.6 °C, 1.3 °C above the 1991–2020 average (23.3 °C), category “Above normal”. It was the warmest week 40 in the 1979–2026 series.
By region, the largest anomaly was in Eastern Cuba (+2.0 °C) and the smallest in Western Cuba (+0.4 °C).
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
5 Climate extremes and records
Source: NOAA NCEI
Highest maximum temperature by state
| State | Station | Temperature (°C) | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guantánamo | Guantanamo Bay Nas | 33.3 | 2026-09-29 |
Source: NOAA NCEI
Lowest minimum temperature by state
| State | Station | Temperature (°C) | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guantánamo | Guantanamo Bay Nas | 24.4 | 2026-09-28 |
Source: NOAA NCEI
Climate-extremes indices (national mean)
| Index | Description | Value | Normal | Difference | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX90p | Warm days (Tmax > 90th percentile) | 18.6 | 10.0 | 8.6 | % |
| TN90p | Warm nights (Tmin > 90th percentile) | 37.8 | 10.0 | 27.8 | % |
| TX10p | Cool days (Tmax < 10th percentile) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | % |
| TN10p | Cold nights (Tmin < 10th percentile) | 5.1 | 10.0 | −4.9 | % |
| FD | Frost days (Tmin < 0 °C) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | d |
| SU | Summer days (Tmax > 25 °C) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | d |
| TR | Tropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C) | 7.0 | 6.9 | 0.1 | d |
| WSDI | Warm spell days (≥ 6 days) | 0.0 | — | — | d |
| CSDI | Cold spell days (≥ 6 days) | 0.0 | — | — | d |
| Rx1day | Maximum 1-day precipitation | 5.8 | 13.0 | −7.2 | mm |
| Rx5day | Maximum 5-day precipitation | 6.9 | 22.7 | −15.8 | mm |
| CDD | Consecutive dry days (< 1 mm) | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | d |
| CWD | Consecutive wet days (≥ 1 mm) | 0.9 | 2.1 | −1.2 | d |
Percentile indices relative to calendar-day percentiles of 1991–2020 (5-day window); counts and maxima averaged over the country's grid cells.
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
6 Drought
The SPI is computed from monthly totals; see the latest monthly report (SPI).
7 Severe weather and notable events
Notable events
| Dates | Type | Details |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 – 2026-10-09 | Drought | GDACS Orange alert: Drought in The Bahamas, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador. |
GDACS alerts and station rainfall of 150 mm or more in 24 hours (after quality control).
Source: GDACS
No tropical cyclone came within 300 km of the country.
9 Outlook
Weekly reports do not include a forecast yet; see the outlook in the latest monthly report (NMME seasonal forecast).
11 Glossary, methodology and sources
Anomaly: difference between the observed value and its 1991–2020 normal. Percent of normal: observed total divided by the normal, times 100. Station record: most extreme daily value for the same month in all earlier years of record (at least 20 years).
Temperature: CPC_TEMP (0.5° daily grid); mean temperature is (Tmax + Tmin)/2. Precipitation: CPC. National, regional and state averages are weighted by the area of each grid cell inside each polygon. Normals refer to 1991-2020; ranks compare values rounded to one decimal. Stations: GHCN-Daily (NOAA NCEI); values flagged by its quality control are discarded, as are daily values more than 5 robust standard deviations from the station median and variables whose monthly anomaly differs by more than 3 °C from the gridded analysis. Period means require at least 80% of days with data and station normals at least 20 complete years. This report is generated automatically and does not replace official information from the national meteorological service.
| Source | Product | License | Citation |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA CPC | ONI, Niño-region SST indices (OISST v2.1), NAO and AO | Public domain (NOAA) | NOAA Climate Prediction Center climate indices. |
| NOAA CPC / PSL | CPC Global Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation, 0.5° | Public domain (NOAA) | CPC Global Unified Precipitation data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA. |
| NOAA CPC / PSL | CPC Global Unified Temperature, daily 0.5° | Public domain (NOAA) | CPC Global Unified Temperature data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA. |
| GDACS | Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System event list | See provider terms | — |
| NOAA NCEI | GHCN-Daily | Public domain (NOAA) | Menne et al. (2012), J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00103.1 |
| NOAA NCEI | IBTrACS v04r01 tropical-cyclone best tracks | Public domain (NOAA) | Knapp et al. (2010), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1 |
| NOAA PSL | Real-time OLR MJO Index (ROMI) | Public domain (NOAA) | Kiladis et al. (2014), Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00301.1 |
| geoBoundaries | geoBoundaries gbOpen (OpenStreetMap, Wambacher) | Open Data Commons Open Database License 1.0 | — |
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