Cuba · Seasonal
Summer 2026
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1 Key messages and climate synopsis
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL, UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL, UCSB Climate Hazards Center
2 Global and regional climate drivers
Sea-surface temperature anomaly, Summer 2026 (°C, 1991–2020)
Source: NOAA NCEI / PSL
Sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño regions (°C)
| Region | Anomaly (°C) | Change from preceding period (°C) |
|---|---|---|
| Niño 1+2 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| Niño 3 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Niño 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Niño 4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
Mean of the months in the period (OISST v2.1)
Source: NOAA CPC
El Niño conditions of strong intensity: the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for JJA 2026 was +1.8 °C.
Source: NOAA CPC
Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly, last 24 months (°C)
Source: NOAA CPC
Teleconnection indices
| Index | Value | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| NAO | −0.7 | Negative |
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
Source: NOAA CPC
The Niño 3.4 anomaly was +2.03 °C (+1.55 °C relative to the preceding period).
Other indices: NAO −0.71 (negative phase).
3 Precipitation
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Accumulated precipitation
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Percent of normal precipitation (1991–2020)
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Percent of normal by state
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Precipitation by region
| Region | Total (mm) | Normal (mm) | Difference (%) | Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Cuba | 373.2 | 623.1 | −40.1 | Below normal |
| Central Cuba | 413.3 | 567.1 | −27.1 | Below normal |
| Eastern Cuba | 344.3 | 422.3 | −18.5 | Near normal |
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Largest 24-hour rainfall at stations
| Station | State | Max 24 h rainfall (mm) | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guantanamo Bay Nas | Guantánamo | 14.2 | 2026-07-01 |
Source: NOAA NCEI
National precipitation in summer of each year
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Monthly precipitation and 1991–2020 normal
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
National accumulated precipitation was 379.0 mm, 71% of the 1991–2020 average (535.0 mm), category “Below normal”. It was the 2nd driest summer in the 1981–2026 series.
The region with the highest percentage of normal was Eastern Cuba (82%) and the lowest was Western Cuba (60%).
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
4 Temperature
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Mean temperature
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Mean temperature anomaly (1991–2020)
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Mean temperature anomaly by state
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Stations with the largest negative anomaly
| Region | State | Station | Altitude (m) | Anomaly (°C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Cuba | Guantánamo | Guantanamo Bay Nas | 16.0 | −0.0 |
Source: NOAA NCEI
Monthly national mean temperature anomaly
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
National mean temperature anomaly in summer of each year
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
The national mean temperature was 29.1 °C, 1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 average (27.8 °C), category “Above normal”. It was the warmest summer in the 1979–2026 series.
By region, the largest anomaly was in Eastern Cuba (+1.6 °C) and the smallest in Western Cuba (+0.6 °C).
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Maximum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Daily national maximum temperature
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
The national maximum temperature was 33.9 °C, 2.0 °C above the 1991–2020 average (31.9 °C), category “Well above normal”. It was the warmest summer in the 1979–2026 series.
By region, the largest anomaly was in Eastern Cuba (+2.2 °C) and the smallest in Western Cuba (+1.3 °C).
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Minimum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Daily national minimum temperature
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
The national minimum temperature was 24.2 °C, 0.5 °C above the 1991–2020 average (23.8 °C), category “Normal”. It was the 10th warmest summer in the 1979–2026 series.
By region, the largest anomaly was in Eastern Cuba (+1.0 °C) and the smallest in Western Cuba (+0.0 °C).
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
5 Climate extremes and records
Source: NOAA NCEI
Highest maximum temperature by state
| State | Station | Temperature (°C) | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guantánamo | Guantanamo Bay Nas | 35.0 | 2026-08-11 |
Source: NOAA NCEI
Lowest minimum temperature by state
| State | Station | Temperature (°C) | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guantánamo | Guantanamo Bay Nas | 22.8 | 2026-06-08 |
Source: NOAA NCEI
Climate-extremes indices (national mean)
| Index | Description | Value | Normal | Difference | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX90p | Warm days (Tmax > 90th percentile) | 64.2 | 10.0 | 54.2 | % |
| TN90p | Warm nights (Tmin > 90th percentile) | 20.8 | 10.0 | 10.8 | % |
| TX10p | Cool days (Tmax < 10th percentile) | 1.7 | 10.0 | −8.3 | % |
| TN10p | Cold nights (Tmin < 10th percentile) | 4.2 | 10.0 | −5.8 | % |
| FD | Frost days (Tmin < 0 °C) | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.0 | d |
| SU | Summer days (Tmax > 25 °C) | 92.0 | 91.7 | 0.3 | d |
| TR | Tropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C) | 91.9 | 91.8 | 0.1 | d |
| WSDI | Warm spell days (≥ 6 days) | 44.1 | — | — | d |
| CSDI | Cold spell days (≥ 6 days) | 0.0 | — | — | d |
| Rx1day | Maximum 1-day precipitation | 45.6 | 36.2 | 9.4 | mm |
| Rx5day | Maximum 5-day precipitation | 68.5 | 64.5 | 4.0 | mm |
| CDD | Consecutive dry days (< 1 mm) | 22.8 | 23.2 | −0.4 | d |
| CWD | Consecutive wet days (≥ 1 mm) | 4.3 | 4.3 | 0.0 | d |
Percentile indices relative to calendar-day percentiles of 1991–2020 (5-day window); counts and maxima averaged over the country's grid cells.
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Heat and cold waves
| Dates | Type | Details |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-03 | Heat wave | Up to 100% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Western Cuba, Central Cuba and Eastern Cuba. |
| 2026-06-15 – 2026-06-19 | Heat wave | Up to 86% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Central Cuba and Eastern Cuba. |
| 2026-06-21 – 2026-06-23 | Heat wave | Up to 97% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Western Cuba, Central Cuba and Eastern Cuba. |
| 2026-06-25 – 2026-07-10 | Heat wave | Up to 90% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Central Cuba and Eastern Cuba. |
| 2026-07-16 – 2026-07-28 | Heat wave | Up to 98% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Western Cuba, Central Cuba and Eastern Cuba. |
| 2026-08-05 – 2026-08-12 | Heat wave | Up to 89% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Central Cuba and Eastern Cuba. |
| 2026-08-17 – 2026-08-22 | Heat wave | Up to 100% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Western Cuba, Central Cuba and Eastern Cuba. |
| 2026-08-24 – 2026-08-31 | Heat wave | Up to 100% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Western Cuba, Central Cuba and Eastern Cuba. |
Wave: at least 3 consecutive days with at least half of the country above the 90th percentile of maximum temperature (heat) or below the 10th percentile of minimum temperature (cold). At most the 10 most intense are listed.
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
6 Drought
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ending August 2026
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Share of the country by SPI category
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
States with the lowest SPI-3
| State | SPI-3 | SPI-6 | Category |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artemisa | −3.0 | −2.9 | Extreme drought |
| La Habana | −3.0 | −2.8 | Extreme drought |
| Mayabeque | −2.8 | −2.2 | Extreme drought |
| Isla de la Juventud | −2.5 | −2.3 | Extreme drought |
| Pinar del Río | −2.1 | −1.3 | Extreme drought |
| Cienfuegos | −1.9 | −0.8 | Severe drought |
| Villa Clara | −1.8 | −0.6 | Severe drought |
| Matanzas | −1.7 | −0.9 | Severe drought |
| Ciego de Ávila | −1.4 | −0.5 | Moderate drought |
| Sancti Spíritus | −1.2 | −0.5 | Moderate drought |
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
SPI-3 (Jun–Aug 2026): national mean −1.37; 60% of the country in drought (SPI ≤ −1.0) and 38% in severe or extreme drought.
Most affected states: Artemisa (−2.99), La Habana (−2.98) and Mayabeque (−2.75).
SPI-6 (Mar–Aug 2026): 21% of the country in drought.
7 Severe weather and notable events
Tracks of nearby tropical cyclones
Source: NOAA NCEI
Tropical cyclones within 300 km of the country
| Name | Basin | Peak intensity | Maximum wind (km/h) | Start | End | Closest approach (km) | Landfall | Landfall intensity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bertha | North Atlantic | Tropical storm | 93 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-24 | 291 | — | — |
Source: NOAA NCEI
Notable events
| Dates | Type | Details |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 – 2026-10-09 | Drought | GDACS Orange alert: Drought in The Bahamas, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador. |
GDACS alerts and station rainfall of 150 mm or more in 24 hours (after quality control).
Source: GDACS
Tropical cyclones within 300 km of the country: 1 (Bertha).
9 Outlook
Outlook for Sep–Nov 2026: most likely tercile
Source: NOAA CPC
Probability of each tercile by region, Sep–Nov 2026 (%)
| Region | Precipitation: below | Precipitation: normal | Precipitation: above | Temp.: below | Temp.: normal | Temp.: above |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Cuba | 33.0 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 5.0 | 17.0 | 78.0 |
| Central Cuba | 37.0 | 34.0 | 30.0 | 6.0 | 23.0 | 71.0 |
| Eastern Cuba | 52.0 | 28.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 17.0 | 69.0 |
Source: NOAA CPC
Probabilistic outlook from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), initialised in September 2026, relative to 1991–2020 terciles. It is not an official forecast: consult the national meteorological service.
Precipitation, Sep–Nov 2026: above normal is favoured over 0% of the country and below normal over 49%.
Mean temperature, Sep–Nov 2026: above normal is favoured over 100% of the country and below normal over 0%.
10 Annexes
Report climate regions
Monthly precipitation by state (mm)
| State | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinar del Río | 23.0 | 18.9 | 64.7 | 105.2 | 199.5 | 115.6 | 93.8 | 160.7 |
| Artemisa | 44.0 | 17.3 | 62.7 | 41.1 | 153.7 | 75.3 | 81.6 | 113.4 |
| La Habana | 53.1 | 23.4 | 52.9 | 29.5 | 139.0 | 62.3 | 83.1 | 92.6 |
| Mayabeque | 43.3 | 23.8 | 63.2 | 40.2 | 200.5 | 129.8 | 82.4 | 108.5 |
| Matanzas | 61.0 | 17.5 | 82.3 | 50.0 | 227.6 | 238.4 | 79.8 | 133.2 |
| Isla de la Juventud | 74.8 | 31.0 | 20.0 | 70.2 | 112.2 | 71.3 | 94.9 | 126.2 |
| Cienfuegos | 72.6 | 28.0 | 93.4 | 84.1 | 234.4 | 197.5 | 81.4 | 170.5 |
| Villa Clara | 59.5 | 41.5 | 117.8 | 84.1 | 247.3 | 137.1 | 66.0 | 161.8 |
| Sancti Spíritus | 40.6 | 53.4 | 106.7 | 73.1 | 201.1 | 180.8 | 81.6 | 191.6 |
| Ciego de Ávila | 27.3 | 60.0 | 96.6 | 117.3 | 152.2 | 148.9 | 52.9 | 170.9 |
| Camagüey | 38.0 | 64.8 | 132.2 | 101.5 | 203.5 | 191.2 | 65.4 | 174.0 |
| Las Tunas | 26.4 | 51.7 | 132.1 | 77.9 | 140.3 | 140.5 | 62.8 | 168.9 |
| Holguín | 58.9 | 73.8 | 193.8 | 138.3 | 84.5 | 134.2 | 46.1 | 101.6 |
| Granma | 53.8 | 45.5 | 189.9 | 113.2 | 152.6 | 172.0 | 93.5 | 154.4 |
| Santiago de Cuba | 41.0 | 52.5 | 253.8 | 139.1 | 154.8 | 178.9 | 74.2 | 121.5 |
| Guantánamo | 65.4 | 97.9 | 216.2 | 181.2 | 88.9 | 137.9 | 51.1 | 85.9 |
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Monthly maximum temperature by state (°C)
| State | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinar del Río | 25.9 | 26.0 | 29.1 | 30.1 | 32.0 | 31.9 | 32.7 | 33.4 |
| Artemisa | 25.5 | 25.6 | 28.7 | 29.7 | 31.9 | 31.9 | 32.7 | 33.4 |
| La Habana | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mayabeque | 26.0 | 26.2 | 29.2 | 30.2 | 32.6 | 32.5 | 33.4 | 33.8 |
| Matanzas | 26.6 | 26.9 | 29.6 | 30.5 | 32.9 | 32.8 | 33.9 | 34.0 |
| Isla de la Juventud | 25.9 | 26.0 | 29.0 | 29.8 | 32.1 | 32.0 | 32.9 | 33.2 |
| Cienfuegos | 26.8 | 26.9 | 29.5 | 30.4 | 32.9 | 33.0 | 34.2 | 34.1 |
| Villa Clara | 26.3 | 26.1 | 28.8 | 29.7 | 32.5 | 32.9 | 34.0 | 34.0 |
| Sancti Spíritus | 27.1 | 26.3 | 28.8 | 29.9 | 32.8 | 33.0 | 34.6 | 34.2 |
| Ciego de Ávila | 27.4 | 26.5 | 28.9 | 30.3 | 33.2 | 33.5 | 35.4 | 35.0 |
| Camagüey | 28.1 | 26.8 | 29.4 | 30.5 | 33.3 | 33.6 | 35.5 | 35.1 |
| Las Tunas | 28.7 | 27.4 | 29.8 | 30.7 | 33.4 | 33.9 | 35.6 | 35.2 |
| Holguín | 28.2 | 27.0 | 29.0 | 29.8 | 32.4 | 33.2 | 34.6 | 34.4 |
| Granma | 28.8 | 27.8 | 29.8 | 30.4 | 32.8 | 33.3 | 35.0 | 34.6 |
| Santiago de Cuba | 28.4 | 27.3 | 29.2 | 29.9 | 32.0 | 32.7 | 34.2 | 34.0 |
| Guantánamo | 27.8 | 26.5 | 28.2 | 28.9 | 30.8 | 31.5 | 32.8 | 32.8 |
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Monthly mean temperature by state (°C)
| State | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinar del Río | 21.7 | 20.7 | 24.5 | 25.7 | 27.9 | 28.1 | 28.4 | 28.7 |
| Artemisa | 21.0 | 20.0 | 23.8 | 24.9 | 27.6 | 27.9 | 28.3 | 28.6 |
| La Habana | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mayabeque | 21.1 | 20.1 | 23.9 | 24.9 | 27.7 | 27.9 | 28.4 | 28.5 |
| Matanzas | 21.7 | 20.7 | 24.3 | 25.2 | 27.8 | 28.0 | 28.6 | 28.5 |
| Isla de la Juventud | 22.5 | 21.3 | 25.2 | 26.1 | 28.6 | 28.7 | 29.1 | 29.2 |
| Cienfuegos | 22.2 | 21.0 | 24.4 | 25.5 | 27.9 | 28.0 | 28.8 | 28.7 |
| Villa Clara | 22.2 | 20.8 | 24.3 | 25.3 | 27.8 | 28.1 | 28.8 | 28.8 |
| Sancti Spíritus | 22.9 | 20.9 | 24.4 | 25.1 | 27.9 | 28.4 | 29.2 | 29.1 |
| Ciego de Ávila | 23.1 | 21.0 | 24.3 | 25.1 | 28.1 | 28.9 | 29.8 | 29.7 |
| Camagüey | 23.9 | 21.6 | 25.0 | 25.7 | 28.4 | 29.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Las Tunas | 24.5 | 22.2 | 25.5 | 26.0 | 28.7 | 29.4 | 30.2 | 30.2 |
| Holguín | 24.5 | 22.5 | 25.3 | 25.8 | 28.3 | 29.1 | 29.9 | 30.0 |
| Granma | 24.2 | 22.5 | 25.3 | 25.8 | 28.2 | 28.9 | 29.6 | 29.6 |
| Santiago de Cuba | 24.3 | 22.6 | 25.0 | 25.6 | 27.8 | 28.5 | 29.4 | 29.4 |
| Guantánamo | 24.2 | 22.5 | 24.6 | 25.2 | 27.3 | 28.1 | 29.0 | 29.0 |
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Monthly minimum temperature by state (°C)
| State | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinar del Río | 17.6 | 15.3 | 20.0 | 21.3 | 23.8 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24.0 |
| Artemisa | 16.5 | 14.4 | 19.0 | 20.2 | 23.4 | 24.0 | 23.9 | 23.8 |
| La Habana | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mayabeque | 16.1 | 14.0 | 18.6 | 19.7 | 22.9 | 23.3 | 23.3 | 23.2 |
| Matanzas | 16.7 | 14.5 | 19.0 | 19.9 | 22.7 | 23.1 | 23.3 | 23.1 |
| Isla de la Juventud | 19.1 | 16.7 | 21.4 | 22.3 | 25.0 | 25.3 | 25.4 | 25.1 |
| Cienfuegos | 17.6 | 15.1 | 19.4 | 20.5 | 22.9 | 23.1 | 23.4 | 23.3 |
| Villa Clara | 18.1 | 15.5 | 19.8 | 20.8 | 23.0 | 23.3 | 23.6 | 23.6 |
| Sancti Spíritus | 18.6 | 15.5 | 19.9 | 20.4 | 23.1 | 23.8 | 23.7 | 24.0 |
| Ciego de Ávila | 18.7 | 15.5 | 19.6 | 19.8 | 22.9 | 24.4 | 24.1 | 24.5 |
| Camagüey | 19.8 | 16.4 | 20.5 | 20.8 | 23.5 | 24.7 | 24.4 | 24.9 |
| Las Tunas | 20.3 | 17.0 | 21.1 | 21.3 | 24.0 | 25.0 | 24.8 | 25.2 |
| Holguín | 20.9 | 18.1 | 21.6 | 21.9 | 24.3 | 25.1 | 25.3 | 25.5 |
| Granma | 19.7 | 17.2 | 20.7 | 21.2 | 23.6 | 24.5 | 24.2 | 24.6 |
| Santiago de Cuba | 20.2 | 17.9 | 20.9 | 21.3 | 23.7 | 24.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 |
| Guantánamo | 20.5 | 18.6 | 20.9 | 21.6 | 23.8 | 24.6 | 25.2 | 25.2 |
Source: NOAA CPC / PSL
Stations used
| Id | Name | State | Latitude | Longitude | Altitude (m) | Days with data (Tmax) (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CUW00011706 | Guantanamo Bay Nas | Guantánamo | 19.9 | −75.2 | 16.2 | 100.0 |
Source: NOAA NCEI
11 Glossary, methodology and sources
Anomaly: difference between the observed value and its 1991–2020 normal. Percent of normal: observed total divided by the normal, times 100. Station record: most extreme daily value for the same month in all earlier years of record (at least 20 years).
Temperature: CPC_TEMP (0.5° daily grid); mean temperature is (Tmax + Tmin)/2. Precipitation: CHIRPS. National, regional and state averages are weighted by the area of each grid cell inside each polygon. Normals refer to 1991-2020; ranks compare values rounded to one decimal. Stations: GHCN-Daily (NOAA NCEI); values flagged by its quality control are discarded, as are daily values more than 5 robust standard deviations from the station median and variables whose monthly anomaly differs by more than 3 °C from the gridded analysis. Period means require at least 80% of days with data and station normals at least 20 complete years. This report is generated automatically and does not replace official information from the national meteorological service.
| Source | Product | License | Citation |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSB Climate Hazards Center | CHIRPS v3.0, 0.05° | See provider terms | Climate Hazards Center, UC Santa Barbara. CHIRPS v3.0. |
| NOAA CPC | ONI, Niño-region SST indices (OISST v2.1), NAO and AO | Public domain (NOAA) | NOAA Climate Prediction Center climate indices. |
| NOAA CPC / PSL | CPC Global Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation, 0.5° | Public domain (NOAA) | CPC Global Unified Precipitation data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA. |
| NOAA CPC / PSL | CPC Global Unified Temperature, daily 0.5° | Public domain (NOAA) | CPC Global Unified Temperature data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA. |
| NOAA NCEI / PSL | Extended Reconstructed SST v5 (ERSST v5), 2° | Public domain (NOAA) | Huang et al. (2017), J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1 |
| GDACS | Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System event list | See provider terms | — |
| NOAA NCEI | GHCN-Daily | Public domain (NOAA) | Menne et al. (2012), J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00103.1 |
| NOAA NCEI | IBTrACS v04r01 tropical-cyclone best tracks | Public domain (NOAA) | Knapp et al. (2010), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1 |
| NOAA CPC | North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) tercile probabilities, 1° | Public domain (NOAA) | Kirtman et al. (2014), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1 |
| geoBoundaries | geoBoundaries gbOpen (OpenStreetMap, Wambacher) | Open Data Commons Open Database License 1.0 | — |
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