Cuba · Monthly

July 2026

Final Issued 2026-10-11 · version 1 · Baseline 1991-2020 · next update 2026-10-12

1 Key messages and climate synopsis

  • National mean temperature of 29.3 °C (+1.3 °C relative to 1991–2020): the warmest July in the 1979–2026 series.
  • National precipitation of 72.0 mm, 46% of normal: the driest July in the 1981–2026 series.
  • Maximum temperature exceeded its 90th percentile on 69% of days (national mean; 10% expected).
  • Heat waves of national extent: 2; cold waves: 0.
  • 1 tropical cyclones passed within 300 km of the country, none making landfall.
  • 61% of the country was in drought by SPI-3 (May–Jul 2026), mainly in Artemisa, Isla de la Juventud and La Habana.
  • El Niño conditions of moderate intensity in the equatorial Pacific (ONI MJJ 2026: +1.4 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL, UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Mean temperature
29.3°C
+1.3 °C vs. normal (normal 28.0)
Above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026)
Maximum temperature
34.4°C
+2.3 °C vs. normal (normal 32.1)
Extremely above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026)
Minimum temperature
24.2°C
+0.4 °C vs. normal (normal 23.8)
Normal
11th warmest of 48 (1979–2026)
Precipitation
72.0mm
46% of normal (normal 156.2)
Below normal
1st driest of 46 (1981–2026)
Station records
0

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL, UCSB Climate Hazards Center

2 Global and regional climate drivers

Sea-surface temperature anomaly, July 2026 (°C, 1991–2020)

Sea-surface temperature anomaly, July 2026 (°C, 1991–2020)

Source: NOAA NCEI / PSL

Sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño regions (°C)

RegionAnomaly (°C)Change from preceding period (°C)
Niño 1+23.60.7
Niño 32.30.6
Niño 3.42.00.5
Niño 41.1−0.2

Mean of the months in the period (OISST v2.1)

Source: NOAA CPC

El Niño conditions of moderate intensity: the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for MJJ 2026 was +1.4 °C.

Source: NOAA CPC

Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly, last 24 months (°C)

Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly, last 24 months (°C)

Source: NOAA CPC

MJO phase diagram (real-time OMI)

MJO phase diagram (real-time OMI)

Source: NOAA PSL

Teleconnection indices

IndexValuePhase
NAO−0.3Neutral
TNA0.4Neutral

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); Tropical North Atlantic (TNA).

Source: NOAA CPC, NOAA PSL

The Niño 3.4 anomaly was +2.03 °C (+0.48 °C relative to the preceding period).

The MJO was active on 8 of 31 days, most often in phase 7 (Western Pacific); mean amplitude 0.7.

Other indices: NAO −0.31 (neutral phase); TNA +0.43 (neutral phase).

3 Precipitation

National precipitation
72.0mm
46% of normal (normal 156.2)
Below normal
1st driest of 46 (1981–2026)

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Accumulated precipitation

Accumulated precipitation

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Percent of normal precipitation (1991–2020)

Percent of normal precipitation (1991–2020)

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Percent of normal by state

Percent of normal by state

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Precipitation by region

RegionTotal (mm)Normal (mm)Difference (%)Category
Western Cuba85.5186.4−54.1Below normal
Central Cuba67.6164.3−58.9Below normal
Eastern Cuba65.5120.8−45.8Below normal

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Largest 24-hour rainfall at stations

StationStateMax 24 h rainfall (mm)Date
Guantanamo Bay NasGuantánamo14.22026-07-01

Source: NOAA NCEI

Daily national mean precipitation

Daily national mean precipitation

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Daily national mean and grid-cell maximum

DayNational mean (mm)Grid maximum (mm)State
2026-07-011.619.9Pinar del Río
2026-07-024.943.8Granma
2026-07-035.829.5Artemisa
2026-07-045.338.8Artemisa
2026-07-055.637.7Artemisa
2026-07-062.239.3Artemisa
2026-07-071.113.6Pinar del Río
2026-07-080.610.0Granma
2026-07-092.019.9Pinar del Río
2026-07-102.031.0La Habana
2026-07-111.328.2Matanzas
2026-07-120.00.8Guantánamo
2026-07-130.15.6Matanzas
2026-07-140.917.5Sancti Spíritus
2026-07-151.924.0Villa Clara
2026-07-160.36.4Ciego de Ávila
2026-07-171.023.2Pinar del Río
2026-07-181.110.9Santiago de Cuba
2026-07-191.114.3Camagüey
2026-07-201.128.6Matanzas
2026-07-210.45.8Guantánamo
2026-07-221.030.4Guantánamo
2026-07-233.521.7Mayabeque
2026-07-248.836.6Camagüey
2026-07-254.232.2Cienfuegos
2026-07-264.046.0Camagüey
2026-07-274.424.4Ciego de Ávila
2026-07-281.915.8Pinar del Río
2026-07-290.39.2Pinar del Río
2026-07-302.831.3Las Tunas
2026-07-310.915.5Camagüey

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

National precipitation in July of each year

National precipitation in July of each year

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

National accumulated precipitation was 72.0 mm, 46% of the 1991–2020 average (156.2 mm), category “Below normal”. It was the driest July in the 1981–2026 series.

The region with the highest percentage of normal was Eastern Cuba (54%) and the lowest was Central Cuba (41%).

The largest daily grid-cell total was estimated on 26 July in Camagüey (46.0 mm).

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

4 Temperature

Mean temperature
29.3°C
+1.3 °C vs. normal (normal 28.0)
Above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature

Mean temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Mean temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature anomaly by state

Mean temperature anomaly by state

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Stations with the largest negative anomaly

RegionStateStationAltitude (m)Anomaly (°C)
Eastern CubaGuantánamoGuantanamo Bay Nas16.0−0.0

Source: NOAA NCEI

National mean temperature anomaly in July of each year

National mean temperature anomaly in July of each year

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national mean temperature was 29.3 °C, 1.3 °C above the 1991–2020 average (28.0 °C), category “Above normal”. It was the warmest July in the 1979–2026 series.

By region, the largest anomaly was in Eastern Cuba (+1.8 °C) and the smallest in Western Cuba (+0.7 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Maximum temperature
34.4°C
+2.3 °C vs. normal (normal 32.1)
Extremely above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Maximum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Maximum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Daily national maximum temperature

Daily national maximum temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national maximum temperature was 34.4 °C, 2.3 °C above the 1991–2020 average (32.1 °C), category “Extremely above normal”. It was the warmest July in the 1979–2026 series.

By region, the largest anomaly was in Central Cuba (+2.6 °C) and the smallest in Western Cuba (+1.3 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Minimum temperature
24.2°C
+0.4 °C vs. normal (normal 23.8)
Normal
11th warmest of 48 (1979–2026)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Minimum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Minimum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Daily national minimum temperature

Daily national minimum temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national minimum temperature was 24.2 °C, 0.4 °C above the 1991–2020 average (23.8 °C), category “Normal”. It was the 11th warmest July in the 1979–2026 series.

By region, the largest anomaly was in Eastern Cuba (+0.9 °C) and the smallest in Western Cuba (+0.1 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

5 Climate extremes and records

Highest maximum temperature
34.4°C
Guantanamo Bay Nas, GTM · 2026-07-09
Lowest minimum temperature
23.3°C
Guantanamo Bay Nas, GTM · 2026-07-25
Highest 24 h rainfall
14.2mm
Guantanamo Bay Nas, GTM · 2026-07-01

Source: NOAA NCEI

Highest maximum temperature by state

StateStationTemperature (°C)Date
GuantánamoGuantanamo Bay Nas34.42026-07-09

Source: NOAA NCEI

Lowest minimum temperature by state

StateStationTemperature (°C)Date
GuantánamoGuantanamo Bay Nas23.32026-07-25

Source: NOAA NCEI

Climate-extremes indices (national mean)

IndexDescriptionValueNormalDifferenceUnit
TX90pWarm days (Tmax > 90th percentile)69.510.059.5%
TN90pWarm nights (Tmin > 90th percentile)17.310.07.3%
TX10pCool days (Tmax < 10th percentile)2.010.0−8.0%
TN10pCold nights (Tmin < 10th percentile)2.910.0−7.1%
FDFrost days (Tmin < 0 °C)0.00.0−0.0d
SUSummer days (Tmax > 25 °C)31.030.90.1d
TRTropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C)31.030.90.1d
WSDIWarm spell days (≥ 6 days)18.5——d
CSDICold spell days (≥ 6 days)0.0——d
Rx1dayMaximum 1-day precipitation31.117.713.4mm
Rx5dayMaximum 5-day precipitation35.929.66.3mm
CDDConsecutive dry days (< 1 mm)16.412.63.8d
CWDConsecutive wet days (≥ 1 mm)1.42.7−1.4d

Percentile indices relative to calendar-day percentiles of 1991–2020 (5-day window); counts and maxima averaged over the country's grid cells.

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Heat and cold waves

DatesTypeDetails
2026-07-01 – 2026-07-10Heat waveUp to 90% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Central Cuba and Eastern Cuba.
2026-07-16 – 2026-07-28Heat waveUp to 98% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Western Cuba, Central Cuba and Eastern Cuba.

Wave: at least 3 consecutive days with at least half of the country above the 90th percentile of maximum temperature (heat) or below the 10th percentile of minimum temperature (cold). At most the 10 most intense are listed.

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

6 Drought

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ending July 2026

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ending July 2026
SPI computed from CHIRPS; gamma distribution fitted to 1991–2020 accumulations.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Share of the country by SPI category

Share of the country by SPI category

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

States with the lowest SPI-3

StateSPI-1SPI-3SPI-6SPI-12Category
Artemisa−2.4−2.5−2.7−2.3Extreme drought
Isla de la Juventud−1.0−2.3−2.3−2.2Extreme drought
La Habana−1.9−2.3−2.6−2.2Extreme drought
Las Tunas−1.7−1.9−0.02.2Severe drought
Holguín−1.2−1.80.31.4Severe drought
Mayabeque−2.3−1.7−1.7−1.5Severe drought
Pinar del Río−1.9−1.5−1.4−1.6Severe drought
Ciego de Ávila−2.0−1.5−0.41.8Moderate drought
Sancti Spíritus−1.8−1.1−0.50.9Moderate drought
Villa Clara−2.3−1.1−0.60.2Moderate drought

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

SPI-3 (May–Jul 2026): national mean −1.26; 61% of the country in drought (SPI ≤ −1.0) and 35% in severe or extreme drought.

Most affected states: Artemisa (−2.54), Isla de la Juventud (−2.31) and La Habana (−2.30).

SPI-1 (July 2026): 87% of the country in drought.

SPI-6 (Feb–Jul 2026): 19% of the country in drought.

SPI-12 (Aug 2025–Jul 2026): 20% of the country in drought.

7 Severe weather and notable events

Tracks of nearby tropical cyclones

Tracks of nearby tropical cyclones
Whole tracks; Saffir–Simpson category from NHC/JTWC. Source: IBTrACS v04 (provisional for recent seasons).

Source: NOAA NCEI

Tropical cyclones within 300 km of the country

NameBasinPeak intensityMaximum wind (km/h)StartEndClosest approach (km)LandfallLandfall intensity
BerthaNorth AtlanticTropical storm932026-07-172026-07-24291——

Source: NOAA NCEI

Notable events

DatesTypeDetails
2026-04-21 – 2026-10-09DroughtGDACS Orange alert: Drought in The Bahamas, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador.

GDACS alerts and station rainfall of 150 mm or more in 24 hours (after quality control).

Source: GDACS

Tropical cyclones within 300 km of the country: 1 (Bertha).

9 Outlook

Outlook for August 2026: most likely tercile

Outlook for August 2026: most likely tercile

Source: NOAA CPC

Outlook for Aug–Oct 2026: most likely tercile

Outlook for Aug–Oct 2026: most likely tercile

Source: NOAA CPC

Probability of each tercile by region, Aug–Oct 2026 (%)

RegionPrecipitation: belowPrecipitation: normalPrecipitation: aboveTemp.: belowTemp.: normalTemp.: above
Western Cuba44.032.024.03.09.089.0
Central Cuba47.031.023.07.019.074.0
Eastern Cuba60.027.013.012.020.068.0

Source: NOAA CPC

Probabilistic outlook from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), initialised in August 2026, relative to 1991–2020 terciles. It is not an official forecast: consult the national meteorological service.

Precipitation, August 2026: above normal is favoured over 0% of the country and below normal over 89%.

Mean temperature, August 2026: above normal is favoured over 100% of the country and below normal over 0%.

Precipitation, Aug–Oct 2026: above normal is favoured over 0% of the country and below normal over 85%.

Mean temperature, Aug–Oct 2026: above normal is favoured over 100% of the country and below normal over 0%.

10 Annexes

Report climate regions

Report climate regions

Monthly precipitation by state (mm)

StateJanFebMarAprMayJunJul
Pinar del Río23.018.964.7105.2199.5115.693.8
Artemisa44.017.362.741.1153.775.381.6
La Habana53.123.452.929.5139.062.383.1
Mayabeque43.323.863.240.2200.5129.882.4
Matanzas61.017.582.350.0227.6238.479.8
Isla de la Juventud74.831.020.070.2112.271.394.9
Cienfuegos72.628.093.484.1234.4197.581.4
Villa Clara59.541.5117.884.1247.3137.166.0
Sancti Spíritus40.653.4106.773.1201.1180.881.6
Ciego de Ávila27.360.096.6117.3152.2148.952.9
Camagüey38.064.8132.2101.5203.5191.265.4
Las Tunas26.451.7132.177.9140.3140.562.8
Holguín58.973.8193.8138.384.5134.246.1
Granma53.845.5189.9113.2152.6172.093.5
Santiago de Cuba41.052.5253.8139.1154.8178.974.2
Guantánamo65.497.9216.2181.288.9137.951.1

CSV

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Monthly maximum temperature by state (°C)

StateJanFebMarAprMayJunJul
Pinar del Río25.926.029.130.132.031.932.7
Artemisa25.525.628.729.731.931.932.7
La Habana———————
Mayabeque26.026.229.230.232.632.533.4
Matanzas26.626.929.630.532.932.833.9
Isla de la Juventud25.926.029.029.832.132.032.9
Cienfuegos26.826.929.530.432.933.034.2
Villa Clara26.326.128.829.732.532.934.0
Sancti Spíritus27.126.328.829.932.833.034.6
Ciego de Ávila27.426.528.930.333.233.535.4
Camagüey28.126.829.430.533.333.635.5
Las Tunas28.727.429.830.733.433.935.6
Holguín28.227.029.029.832.433.234.6
Granma28.827.829.830.432.833.335.0
Santiago de Cuba28.427.329.229.932.032.734.2
Guantánamo27.826.528.228.930.831.532.8

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Monthly mean temperature by state (°C)

StateJanFebMarAprMayJunJul
Pinar del Río21.720.724.525.727.928.128.4
Artemisa21.020.023.824.927.627.928.3
La Habana———————
Mayabeque21.120.123.924.927.727.928.4
Matanzas21.720.724.325.227.828.028.6
Isla de la Juventud22.521.325.226.128.628.729.1
Cienfuegos22.221.024.425.527.928.028.8
Villa Clara22.220.824.325.327.828.128.8
Sancti Spíritus22.920.924.425.127.928.429.2
Ciego de Ávila23.121.024.325.128.128.929.8
Camagüey23.921.625.025.728.429.130.0
Las Tunas24.522.225.526.028.729.430.2
Holguín24.522.525.325.828.329.129.9
Granma24.222.525.325.828.228.929.6
Santiago de Cuba24.322.625.025.627.828.529.4
Guantánamo24.222.524.625.227.328.129.0

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Monthly minimum temperature by state (°C)

StateJanFebMarAprMayJunJul
Pinar del Río17.615.320.021.323.824.224.2
Artemisa16.514.419.020.223.424.023.9
La Habana———————
Mayabeque16.114.018.619.722.923.323.3
Matanzas16.714.519.019.922.723.123.3
Isla de la Juventud19.116.721.422.325.025.325.4
Cienfuegos17.615.119.420.522.923.123.4
Villa Clara18.115.519.820.823.023.323.6
Sancti Spíritus18.615.519.920.423.123.823.7
Ciego de Ávila18.715.519.619.822.924.424.1
Camagüey19.816.420.520.823.524.724.4
Las Tunas20.317.021.121.324.025.024.8
Holguín20.918.121.621.924.325.125.3
Granma19.717.220.721.223.624.524.2
Santiago de Cuba20.217.920.921.323.724.424.5
Guantánamo20.518.620.921.623.824.625.2

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Stations used

IdNameStateLatitudeLongitudeAltitude (m)Days with data (Tmax) (%)
CUW00011706Guantanamo Bay NasGuantánamo19.9−75.216.2100.0

CSV

Source: NOAA NCEI

11 Glossary, methodology and sources

Anomaly: difference between the observed value and its 1991–2020 normal. Percent of normal: observed total divided by the normal, times 100. Station record: most extreme daily value for the same month in all earlier years of record (at least 20 years).

Temperature: CPC_TEMP (0.5° daily grid); mean temperature is (Tmax + Tmin)/2. Precipitation: CHIRPS. National, regional and state averages are weighted by the area of each grid cell inside each polygon. Normals refer to 1991-2020; ranks compare values rounded to one decimal. Stations: GHCN-Daily (NOAA NCEI); values flagged by its quality control are discarded, as are daily values more than 5 robust standard deviations from the station median and variables whose monthly anomaly differs by more than 3 °C from the gridded analysis. Period means require at least 80% of days with data and station normals at least 20 complete years. This report is generated automatically and does not replace official information from the national meteorological service.

SourceProductLicenseCitation
UCSB Climate Hazards CenterCHIRPS v3.0, 0.05°See provider termsClimate Hazards Center, UC Santa Barbara. CHIRPS v3.0.
NOAA CPCONI, Niño-region SST indices (OISST v2.1), NAO and AOPublic domain (NOAA)NOAA Climate Prediction Center climate indices.
NOAA CPC / PSLCPC Global Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation, 0.5°Public domain (NOAA)CPC Global Unified Precipitation data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA.
NOAA CPC / PSLCPC Global Unified Temperature, daily 0.5°Public domain (NOAA)CPC Global Unified Temperature data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA.
NOAA NCEI / PSLExtended Reconstructed SST v5 (ERSST v5), 2°Public domain (NOAA)Huang et al. (2017), J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1
GDACSGlobal Disaster Alert and Coordination System event listSee provider terms—
NOAA NCEIGHCN-DailyPublic domain (NOAA)Menne et al. (2012), J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00103.1
NOAA NCEIIBTrACS v04r01 tropical-cyclone best tracksPublic domain (NOAA)Knapp et al. (2010), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1
NOAA CPCNorth American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) tercile probabilities, 1°Public domain (NOAA)Kirtman et al. (2014), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1
NOAA PSLReal-time OLR MJO Index (ROMI)Public domain (NOAA)Kiladis et al. (2014), Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00301.1
NOAA PSLTropical Northern Atlantic index (TNA)Public domain (NOAA)Enfield et al. (1999), J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/1999JC900039
geoBoundariesgeoBoundaries gbOpen (OpenStreetMap, Wambacher)Open Data Commons Open Database License 1.0—

Generated by ClimaBulletin (climabulletin.org), open source. Questions and comments: [email protected].